For enduring democracies, revolutions are the best bet

USA TODAY

March 2, 2011 Wednesday
FINAL EDITION

For enduring democracies, revolutions are the best bet

BYLINE: Mike Albertus and Victor Menaldo

SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 9A

LENGTH: 650 words

When we think of the American Revolution, we often think of a just fight for liberty. This could explain why the recent events in the Middle East -- especially in Tunisia and Egypt -- have led some to declare that these revolts are precursors to democracy.

Research that we've conducted on the relationship between revolutions and democracy demonstrates that less than a majority of revolutions end in democracy. Surprisingly, however, we also find that the democracies that tend to survive the test of time are those born in revolution.

Three findings help dispel the myth that the popular uprisings in the Middle East will necessarily culminate in democracies:

*Since the end of World War II, there have been 88 transitions to democracy. Only 19 of these 88 democracies were spawned by revolutions. The vast majority of postwar democracies -- 69 --were the culmination of gradual political reform or negotiations between incumbent political parties, the military and opposition forces.

Colombia's model

Democracy in contemporary Colombia, for example, was founded upon an explicit power-sharing pact between elites of the Liberal and Conservative parties in which they agreed to rotate the presidency every four years and to prevent third-party challenges. Colombia's experience in political engineering via the National Front undercuts the influence of the lower classes in politics and is far from the only case in which transitions catalyzed by elites made an end run around the majority.

*Twenty-seven out of 46 revolutions ended in authoritarian rule, such as Iran in 1979, compared with the 19 revolutions that ended in democracy. In other words, most revolutions either failed to unseat an incumbent autocracy or ended in the replacement of one dictator for another.

*While all 19 of the democracies born in revolution survived, 53 of the democracies that emerged absent a revolution eventually reverted back to dictatorships. Revolutionary democracies had the popular support necessary to dismantle the longstanding power of political elites, whereas those that emerged not from revolutions, but from elite pacts and negotiations, lacked the popularlegitimacy to withstand crises.

Ending corruption

For Egyptians, the promise of democracy extends beyond recapturing their freedom. It also means ridding themselves of an oppressive leader who used his office to aggrandize his wealth and that of his supporters. An end to corruption and the election of new politicians have the potential to deliver greater accountability and policies that can tip the balance of investment and growth toward the people. Our research found reason for optimism on this front: On average, democracies that emerged from revolutions spend considerably more on public goods such as education and health than democracies not born from revolution.

But the transition in Egypt is far from over, and one key actor -- the military -- will play a critical role. Egypt's democratic promise could remain stillborn if the military limits elections to candidates who favor the status quo. The same is true if the generals operate as an implicit coup threat against civilian governments that attempt to deliver benefits to the people at the military's expense.

Yet history also shows that if democratic practice is unable to fulfill expectations, citizen disillusionment can lead to a deterioration in popular participation -- even outright democratic failure.

Egyptians did the unimaginable: They took to the streets en masse and threw Hosni Mubarak out. But one common mantra espoused by the protesters -- "the military and the people are one hand" -- has yet to be demonstrated. Whether it proves true is key to determining Egypt's democratic potential.

Mike Albertus is assistant professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Victor Menaldo is assistant professor of political science at the University of Washington.

LANGUAGE: ENGLISH

PUBLICATION-TYPE: NEWSPAPER